world of tanks power leveling needs to be confirmed is expected to continue - KPA

⊙ Reporter Wu Xiaojing Zhang Yiwen 0 edit on March 6, the Shanghai composite index closed at 2,410.　　From January 6, 2,132 points of record lows since the Shanghai stock index rebounded nearly 300 points, more than 13%. "Sturdy" floating capital took the lead in launching the rounds, directed at the "100 points rally", the pessimism of the Fund,Yu "onlooker" becomes increasingly gallon main.　　"Forced air" continued under the Fund rapid gallon in February. But after 300-point rally, the Fund concentrated gallon pace slowed, differences emerge. Fund managers began to worry, once the fundamentals of the economy cannot support go farther, market adjustments may occur at any time. In fact, the last two days of market adjustmentAlso reflects these concerns.　　Valuation of liquidity-driven restoration is a logic for this round of recovery, when market sentiment gradually towards optimism, bounce can withstand the test of the fundamentals of the economy for some time in the future, become the focus of too many differences. From concentrate gallon to "brake" from "spectators" to concentrate gallon, then differences to change cartridge, 300 pointsRebound space, view changes in the Fund.　　Changes in the position of the Fund since January 6, has a better interpretation of the above process. Haitong securities (microblogging), under the pessimism, in December last year averaged positions of the Fund fell to 75% level of, and during the January 6, 2012, active stock and mixed openFund's stock holdings had reached an average of 79.08%.　　During the February 17, unit of mixed type Fund positions has been upgraded to 82.59%, "high level since 2006". However, as the market rebounded exceeded expectations, of funds on the rebound of space and persistent differences developed, centralized gallon completed at this stage. The industryA senior fund analysts, "currently funds overall positions are consistent performers, but in terms of specific change cartridge, differences are large. "For this round of rally logic, Morgan Stanley Fund Manager Cheng Junfeng basic industries that" major factors is improvement in liquidity. "Starting from the last four quarters, rate began to decline as the representative of the currency in circulation conditions improve, this isThe first step, the second step is the easing of credit.　　Under the guidance of the above factors, market regain some funds, and form a rebound. Southern Fund (micro-blogging) Chief policy analyst Yang Delong (micro-blogging) were of the view that "oversold" and easing is expected to become the main two dynamic rebound. First, last year a lot of stock in the bottom of the historical valuation, investment values appear, second, Caring attitude of the Government on the stock market is now clear, is not only the two lower deposit rates, and easing the expected effect on the stock market is very large, forming positive. Nature of the market, agencies agreed that the rebound is, is too early to reverse the trend. Cheng Junfeng fund managers believe that Morgan Stanley Foundation industry, European debt crisis, economic slowdown and slowing exports, the problem still existsAlthough reserves since last 4 quarters reveal improvement in monetary conditions such as lower interest rates, fiscal and monetary policy relaxed substantially less chance.　　So the market difficult to a sustained trend significantly upward. "Since the beginning of the rally came alone, has now entered a sensitive location. "Accommodation gem Fund Manager Wang Chien-hsuan said the seasonal revivalAdd facing relatively abundant liquidity-driven rally after weak situation.　　From a later time possible influencing factors are important to observe seasonal recovery is surprising. Wang believes that judging from the current situation, recovery is substantially likely to be smaller than expected, negative performance was not clear; how the decline in demand for funds in the real economy, the actualIf there is a further decline in interest rates, current situation of financial products from the Bank, do not seem to be obvious. March market will face more tangled situation. "Currently investor has not yet been formed for medium-and long-term growth drivers of the market generally agree that subsequent new driving forces are not clear. "A well-known public fund managers believe that," from a fundamental view,A shares would not have exceeded expectations, now belongs to the seasonal rise. "In their opinion, markets rebound limited space, unable to rebound short term market trends, now, stage, fell rebounded up to maximum, only repair market. Recent real estate shares better reflect all of the future is expected to improve, leading role of real estate and relatedWide enough, only the property sector really, it is only on the economy is expected to have improved.　　Liquidity "puzzle" to be solved if we say that this is a liquidity-driven rally more valuation fixed prices, then subsequent changes in liquidity, can become a key factor affecting the development of the market. More optimistic fund investment research team where the HSBC Fund (micro-blogging),Although perhaps slightly improved economic fundamentals and liquidity is not enough to support a sharp reversal, but in a more positive frame of mind to pay attention to market changes is currently more choice. "Although the overall tone of the monetary policy is still dominated by sound, but there is a chance, depending on the market situation in a certain degree of adjustment, marginal liquidity reformGood governance still is expected to be growing. "While more cautious views such as industrial Global Fund (micro-blogging) Chief Investment Officer Wang Xiaoming think, also see the special highlights on the fundamentals," this rally reflected the easing of liquidity, but in the medium term, improvements in liquidity difficulties turning point occurs. "Wang Xiaoming said further analysis, on the one hand world of tanks power leveling, inflation is still a great deal ofDistractions, decision-making difficult in this case on a greater relaxation of monetary policy on the other, except for bank loans, foreign exchange effects on growth in M2 is also hard to ignore, M2 growth for the whole year will reach 14% in doubt. Therefore, the short term, the liquidity has gone through a process from a too tight to loosen last year, but medium-term liquidity is too looseDifficult. Liu Antian Dacheng selected fund managers also said that the effect of money supply by three main factors: the monetary base, money multiplier and loan ratio, reduced reserve requirements can only solve the problem of the money multiplier, but hard to solve two problems. Down reserve funds had some positive impact, but its effect and will notA great deal. From the market pay close attention to the amount of new loans in February, sea Fortis Fund (Twitter), is expected in February about at about 600 billion to 800 billion in new loans, because January is only affected by the Spring Festival factor $ 738.1 billion in new loans, significantly below market forecasts of mean; the combined size of new loans in February, credit for DecemberMay the total overall than in previous years, indicating that effective demand for loans in the real economy is weakening. Southern Fund, as of February 24, the Bank about $ 600 billion in new loans. It is estimated that the February new loans will be 700 billion yuan or less. "Up to now, markets on easing liquidity release expected has not been verified and releasedLending figures lower than expected, mainly reflecting active economic activity, lack of actual demand for loans. "For OTC funding body, a leading fund managers in the industry believe that current yields declined such as financial products, the original financial funds to find new investment directions, so stable and appears certain to make money in the stock market effects of an element of capital inflows, this is just actingFinance products.　　But from the perspective of more long-term, there is a deposit removal procedure marketization of interest rates, speaking from a long-term perspective, in elevation at the bottom of the market interest rates, stock market value of central pressures down. Too many differences compared to the liquidity from fundamentals "puzzle", the macro-economic trend seems to be even more uncertainty. As the "spring offensive"Interpretation that the mood with subtle changes are taking place.　　Some institutional investors started to worry about, the fundamentals of the economy may not be able to support go farther, market adjustments may occur at any time. As the Boshi Fund (micro-blogging) macro strategies, General Manager Wei Fengchun (micro-blogging) concerns: reserve ratios down, look "policy bottom" is out, but take into account 1Month of such bad social and financing issues, weakening in demand for credit has also been very determined, the lenient policy positions can make one or two quarters economy would bottom out? "Based on expected asset price changes in economic activity, needs to be confirmed is expected to continue, recent upbeat sentiment in the market, in the next period of time will suffer from the fundamentals of test. "" NowDifference is that the fundamentals.　　"A big fund company managers believe that now empty square that fundamentals have not improved significantly, rebound unsustainable, while economic soft landing is considered, in the years would have seen the bottom, will rebound in the second half, and 3-6 months in advance in the stock market reflected, rebound in the medium-term period. Have to say is that many predict, for macro-Predict the most difficult of economic turning points, as too many factors.　　Even if the economic data is the same, different, understand point of view is not the same, came to the conclusion it is different. A copy of the data, three kinds of interpretation!　　Different funds for the fundamentals of the economy are expected to show an exhaustive list. China Federation of logistics and purchasing last week announced in February 2012 PMI data,For the interpretation of the data, relatively optimistic fund investment research team that the economy remained stable growth; relatively neutral interpretation of the view that recovery of the economy is in a weak State, while continuing to be seen; and relatively bearish fund investment research team world of tanks power leveling, believes that the economy bottom out still needs time. As relatively optimistic take on Morgan believes that data continues to pick up better than expected, indicatingSteady growth, particularly exports have rebounded; also does not eliminate the risk of the rapid decline in real estate investment, but is too pessimistic expectations has reversed, on the market has a positive meaning. Same period in history, China International analysis on February PMI data is the mean value of is still significantly lower than 52.33% since 2005, in absolute terms than in 2009, but, 1Combining months overall recovery rate is better than the historical average, further continued rising trend unchanged since December last year. View relatively neutral Bank Schroders Fund (micro-blogging) investment research team thinks, "from the structural point of view, form the 5 categories of Manufacturing PMI index 4 1 drop, the structure is more neutral. But judging from the absolute value, 51% valueRatio is lower than historical data, indicating that weak economic rebound, the economy is currently weak state of recovery. "Silver Schroeder expects" the March PMI will still have to pick up in April, PMI may have dropped slightly, but these fluctuations are within normal limits, you don't have to worry too much. On the a-share markets, on the probability of a large number of structural opportunities this year rather than a trend lineLove, need to closely follow the policies, be judge. "Interpretation of the Teda Manulife funds are relatively pessimistic, in its opinion, PMI index continued to pick up, but mixed combinations of indices, the overall slowdown in demand, some recovery in external demand, inventory back to the expanding range of products, purchase prices continue to increase rapidly, the compression profit space. Overall,Bottom out of our economy still needs time, are critical requirements there is a general and effective recovery, or business stays in and over to inventory in the course of time may be longer.　　Ride the "structure" Fund for the rebound height differences, but looking for more certainty for investment opportunities, become a consensus of the Fund. Most investment research team thinkAnd, in relation to investment opportunities, more chances than last year this year, and now, space is limited the index up and down, play down the index, optimize the investment structure is all the more important, underestimated the value of blue-chip stocks is still the most popular investment targets. "General seasonal market will continue for two months or so. "A well-known public fund managers believe that if the baseThe substantive changes have taken place, may be larger, but the exact point in time it is quite difficult to grasp wot power leveling, investors need in accordance with its own actual conditions, according to the operation characteristic flexibility, such as some big institutions to play the Lead, and more flexible institutions tend to more accurately grasp the point. One of Morgan Stanley huaxin fund managers believe thatStocks rebound although the logic of not the same now, but a fundamental starting point is expected based on past "deviation". Current trends may also be in the upstream process, when the expected changes, require macro-and microscopic confirmation of data dissemination in order to achieve the purpose of change is expected. Prior to this, appropriate participation of investors can still expect the rally.The fund managers said, looking to the future, evolution will continue, expected changes of macro data need further follow up release, market hot spots may also be set on the class a shares in the cycle, part of a thematic investment opportunities to participate can also moderate. From the structural opportunity, Morgan Stanley basic industry Fund Manager Cheng Junfeng believes that appears first is the opportunity for the whole ofShare prices declining significantly, the valuation has been a return to a relatively low consumption of a class or classes of stable growth plates.　　Followed by some financial-related, and State investment in the future of some topics related to the opportunity, for example nuclear power or potential future high speed rail policy appropriate to relax some of the opportunities, and so on. Days governance Fund (micro-blogging) research director Wu Zhan peak for China's economy in aPoint of view, neither pessimistic nor optimistic. In its opinion, in addition to play down the index, look for much more important long-term competitive companies. "High-end manufacturing industry, machine building, as well as the largest consumer of pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, consumer electronics and other subsequent spaces are great, deserves continued attention. "In addition, more cautious investment fund director Wang Xiaoming, said since the beginning of this yearHas been 7% about earnings, followed by proper contraction, but blue chips like Bank are worth investing in. Cathay Pacific Fund (micro-blogging) investment director Zhang Wei says, after 2-month rally, and did not see the entry of foreign funds, the market will continue to rise or remains to be seen, but underestimated the value of blue-chip stocks was also favored by the capital. 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